# Aberdeen South: election prediction

SNP hold, 64% likely. Conservative: 36% chance.

- Region: Scotland, Scotland
- MP: Douglas Lumsden (elected in 2024: Stephen Flynn)
- 2024 winner: SNP, turnout 59.9%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| SNP | 33.5% | 32.8% |
| Conservative | 30.5% | 24.4% |
| Reform UK | 15.0% | 6.9% |
| Labour | 9.3% | 24.7% |
| Lib Dem | 4.7% | 6.3% |
| Green | 3.9% | 3.5% |
| Independent | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| Restore Britain | 1.3% | – |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/aberdeen-south), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/aberdeen-south.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)