# Aberafan Maesteg: election prediction

Reform UK gain from Labour, 65% likely. Labour: 28% chance.

- Region: Wales, Wales
- MP: Stephen Kinnock
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 49.3%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Reform UK | 30.9% | 20.9% |
| Labour | 25.9% | 49.9% |
| Plaid Cymru | 20.7% | 13.2% |
| Conservative | 7.7% | 8.1% |
| Green | 5.8% | 3.1% |
| Restore Britain | 3.7% | – |
| Lib Dem | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Independent | 2.6% | 2.2% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/aberafan-maesteg), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/aberafan-maesteg.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)