# UK general election forecast

Labour largest party, but short of a majority. About 292 seats, 28 short of governing alone, but a 72% chance of a majority with the Lib Dems.

Updated 22 October 2026, using polls up to 19 October 2026. A working majority needs about 320 seats. Chance of a hung parliament: 71%.

## Projected seats

| Party | Seats | Likely range (80%) | Chance of a majority |
|---|---:|---|---:|
| Labour | 292 | 228 to 354 | 29% |
| Conservative | 116 | 73 to 161 | 0% |
| Reform UK | 101 | 46 to 167 | 0% |
| Lib Dem | 56 | 41 to 69 | 0% |
| SNP | 38 | 18 to 51 | 0% |
| Green | 12 | 5 to 20 | 0% |
| Independent | 9 | 4 to 14 | 0% |
| Plaid Cymru | 8 | 5 to 12 | 0% |
| Sinn Féin | 7 | 6 to 8 | 0% |
| DUP | 4 | 3 to 6 | 0% |
| SDLP | 2 | 1 to 2 | 0% |
| Restore Britain | 1 | 0 to 2 | 0% |
| Speaker | 1 | 1 to 1 | 0% |
| Alliance | 1 | 0 to 3 | 0% |
| UUP | 1 | 1 to 2 | 0% |
| TUV | 1 | 0 to 1 | 0% |

## Combinations

- Labour + Lib Dem: 72% chance of a working majority
- Labour + Lib Dem + Green: 79% chance of a working majority
- Labour, LD, Green, SNP, Plaid: 96% chance of a working majority
- Conservative + Reform: 2% chance of a working majority
- Conservative + Reform + Restore: 2% chance of a working majority

## Polling average

- Great Britain: Labour 27.6%, Reform 21.9%, Conservative 20.6%, Lib Dem 9.9%, Green 9.7%, Restore 4.0%, Other 2.7%, SNP 2.6%, Plaid 1.0%
- Scotland: SNP 32.2%, Labour 20.5%, Reform 16.9%, Conservative 11.9%, Lib Dem 8.1%, Green 6.0%, Other 2.4%, Restore 2.0%
- Wales: Reform 24.9%, Plaid 21.3%, Labour 20.2%, Conservative 15.5%, Green 8.1%, Lib Dem 5.6%, Other 2.4%, Restore 2.0%

## More

- [Every seat](https://gbelects.com/seats.md) and [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seats.json)
- [Polls](https://gbelects.com/polls.md) and [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/polls.json)
- [How the forecast works](https://gbelects.com/method.md)
- [Forecast as JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/forecast.json)