{
 "source": "GB Elects (https://gbelects.com)",
 "updated": "2026-10-22T02:36:03.224Z",
 "polls_up_to": "2026-10-19",
 "headline": "Labour largest party, but short of a majority",
 "summary": "About 292 seats, 28 short of governing alone, but a 72% chance of a majority with the Lib Dems.",
 "seats_needed_for_working_majority": 320,
 "hung_parliament_chance": 0.71,
 "parties": [
  {
   "party": "Lab",
   "name": "Labour",
   "seats": 292,
   "range80": [
    228,
    354
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0.29,
   "largest_party_chance": 0.968
  },
  {
   "party": "Con",
   "name": "Conservative",
   "seats": 116,
   "range80": [
    73,
    161
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0,
   "largest_party_chance": 0.006
  },
  {
   "party": "Ref",
   "name": "Reform UK",
   "seats": 101,
   "range80": [
    46,
    167
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0,
   "largest_party_chance": 0.026
  },
  {
   "party": "LD",
   "name": "Lib Dem",
   "seats": 56,
   "range80": [
    41,
    69
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0,
   "largest_party_chance": 0
  },
  {
   "party": "SNP",
   "name": "SNP",
   "seats": 38,
   "range80": [
    18,
    51
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0,
   "largest_party_chance": 0
  },
  {
   "party": "Grn",
   "name": "Green",
   "seats": 12,
   "range80": [
    5,
    20
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0,
   "largest_party_chance": 0
  },
  {
   "party": "Oth",
   "name": "Independent",
   "seats": 9,
   "range80": [
    4,
    14
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0,
   "largest_party_chance": 0
  },
  {
   "party": "PC",
   "name": "Plaid Cymru",
   "seats": 8,
   "range80": [
    5,
    12
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0,
   "largest_party_chance": 0
  },
  {
   "party": "SF",
   "name": "Sinn Féin",
   "seats": 7,
   "range80": [
    6,
    8
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0,
   "largest_party_chance": 0
  },
  {
   "party": "DUP",
   "name": "DUP",
   "seats": 4,
   "range80": [
    3,
    6
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0,
   "largest_party_chance": 0
  },
  {
   "party": "SDLP",
   "name": "SDLP",
   "seats": 2,
   "range80": [
    1,
    2
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0,
   "largest_party_chance": 0
  },
  {
   "party": "RB",
   "name": "Restore Britain",
   "seats": 1,
   "range80": [
    0,
    2
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0,
   "largest_party_chance": 0
  },
  {
   "party": "Spk",
   "name": "Speaker",
   "seats": 1,
   "range80": [
    1,
    1
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0,
   "largest_party_chance": 0
  },
  {
   "party": "APNI",
   "name": "Alliance",
   "seats": 1,
   "range80": [
    0,
    3
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0,
   "largest_party_chance": 0
  },
  {
   "party": "UUP",
   "name": "UUP",
   "seats": 1,
   "range80": [
    1,
    2
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0,
   "largest_party_chance": 0
  },
  {
   "party": "TUV",
   "name": "TUV",
   "seats": 1,
   "range80": [
    0,
    1
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0,
   "largest_party_chance": 0
  }
 ],
 "coalitions": [
  {
   "name": "Labour + Lib Dem",
   "parties": [
    "Lab",
    "LD"
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0.72
  },
  {
   "name": "Labour + Lib Dem + Green",
   "parties": [
    "Lab",
    "LD",
    "Grn"
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0.79
  },
  {
   "name": "Labour, LD, Green, SNP, Plaid",
   "parties": [
    "Lab",
    "LD",
    "Grn",
    "SNP",
    "PC"
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0.959
  },
  {
   "name": "Conservative + Reform",
   "parties": [
    "Con",
    "Ref"
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0.021
  },
  {
   "name": "Conservative + Reform + Restore",
   "parties": [
    "Con",
    "Ref",
    "RB"
   ],
   "majority_chance": 0.022
  }
 ],
 "polling_average": {
  "great_britain": {
   "Lab": 27.59,
   "Con": 20.6,
   "Ref": 21.91,
   "LD": 9.91,
   "Grn": 9.67,
   "SNP": 2.63,
   "PC": 1.04,
   "RB": 4,
   "Oth": 2.65
  },
  "scotland": {
   "Lab": 20.54,
   "SNP": 32.23,
   "Con": 11.85,
   "LD": 8.13,
   "Ref": 16.87,
   "Grn": 6.04,
   "Oth": 2.4,
   "RB": 1.95,
   "PC": 0
  },
  "wales": {
   "Lab": 20.23,
   "Con": 15.53,
   "Ref": 24.93,
   "PC": 21.26,
   "LD": 5.55,
   "Grn": 8.09,
   "Oth": 2.42,
   "RB": 1.99,
   "SNP": 0
  }
 },
 "notes": "Seat figures are the average across 2,000 simulated elections. A working majority is about 320 because Sinn Fein MPs do not take their seats and the Speaker and deputies do not vote.",
 "more": {
  "seats": "https://gbelects.com/api/seats.json",
  "polls": "https://gbelects.com/api/polls.json",
  "method": "https://gbelects.com/method.md"
 }
}